College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 1, 2023: Computer model backs Purdue, Western Kentucky

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The Week 1 college football schedule continues Saturday, with some of the top teams in the country getting their first taste of game action this season. No. 4 Alabama is a 39-point favorite against Middle Tennessee in the Week 1 college football spreads, while No. 7 Penn State is a 20.5-point favorite against West Virginia. No. 6 USC is one of the few teams that was in action last week, cruising to a 56-28 win over San Jose State in Week 0. The Trojans are 38-point favorites against Nevada in the Week 1 college football odds from SportsLine consensus.

Playing in Week 0 can provide crucial momentum and experience, but it can also leave teams more fatigued than their opponents. Should you back the Trojans with your Week 1 college football bets? Before locking in any college football picks for Week 1 of the 2023 season, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds for Week 1 and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for Week 1

One of the college football picks the model is recommending for Saturday: Purdue (-3.5) covers against Fresno State in a noon ET kickoff at Ross-Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers are hoping for an easy transition at quarterback as Texas transfer Hudson Card takes over for Aidan O'Connell, who was drafted by the Raiders.

Even if the offense has some early bumps, new Purdue coach Ryan Walters is known for his defensive background. SportsLine's model is projecting that the Boilermakers hold Fresno State to 24 points, well below their 2022 average (30.6 ppg). Fresno State won 10 games last year but must replace quarterback Jake Haener and several key skill players. This line has moved from -6.5 to -3.5, and the model has spotted value on Purdue as the favorite at this number, saying the Boilermakers cover more than 50% of the time.

Another prediction: Western Kentucky cruises to a blowout win as an 11.5-point home favorite against South Florida on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. There are not many signs pointing to a successful season opener for South Florida, which is playing under first-year head coach Alex Golesh. He has not named a starting quarterback or several other starting positions, leaving the Bulls with some uncertainty following their disastrous 2022 campaign.

They have gone winless in 18 consecutive road games and have failed to cover the spread in six straight season openers. Western Kentucky has won nine of its last 11 openers and has covered the spread in six straight September games. The Hilltoppers have a proven quarterback in Austin Reed, who is throwing for more than 400 yards in the latest simulations. Reed provides Western Kentucky with way too much firepower for USF to handle, which is one reason why the model has the Hilltoppers covering well over 70% of the time. See which other teams the model likes here.

How to make college football picks for Week 1

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup in Week 1, and it's calling for several underdogs to win outright. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence, and which underdogs win outright? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $2,500 in profit over the past seven seasons, and find out.